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© 2019 Strategic Group.Media

THE STRUGGLE FOR EUROPE'S GEOCLIMATIC HARBOR: UKRAINE

STRATEGIC GROUP SOFIA
REPORT
Dmytro Yermolaiev

project author, editor-in-chief - Strategic Group Sofia
UA-version-read

1.GLOBAL CLIMATE CRISIS OF LIVING SPACE
The Little Ice Age was the most recent noticeable natural climatic shift in Earth's history prior to the Industrial Revolution. It brought cooler than average conditions to the North Atlantic region and spanned several centuries from about 1300 to 1850. The Anthropocene epoch, following this, launched an accelerated and uncontrolled process of re-development of the natural habitat, transforming a stable, parametrically cyclical climate into a permanent warming process. Protection from the harsh consequences of which is now completely entrusted to the shoulders of man. Maintaining acceptable parameters of our habitat becomes a matter of purely planned, man-made actions. The climatic resource of the territories acquires the value of a new quality.

The goals of the Paris Agreement to reduce GHG emissions have become a strong global tool to reorient the world's economies to prioritize green investment as a way to stop the warming process, but not reverse it. Alas, the dynamics of greening turned out to be relatively smaller than the global growth in resource consumption and the by-products needed to produce the components of a carbon-neutral economy. Only by winning ourselves a little time for adaptation by these actions, we are nevertheless doomed to serious, on a planetary scale, changes in the spatial reorganization of the infrastructure of life and management. We are talking about the loss of viability of some territories and a significant reduction in the ability for socio-economic reproduction of others.
Adaptation measures in areas that are most favorable in terms of passing the effects of warming will become the only investment in the future.
This picture of the future world and a similar understanding of the inevitable climate transformations has become the common position of many Western scientific papers in recent years and is one of the likely scenarios in public forecasting models. Based on their content, we can confidently assert that a number of European territories are potentially one of the most favorable territories for life and business activities in terms of regional and global changes. This has also become one of the determining factors of Ukraine's strategic importance for Europe.

1.1 CLIMATE SHIFT – A CHALLENGE FOR THE WORLD AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EUROPE

The generally accepted IPCC Scenario for Maintaining High Emissions (from the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) - SSP5-8.5 predicts reaching a mean warming temperature of more than 1.5°C between 2026 and 2039 with a median of 2030. This temperature value was previously supposed to be kept within the PA until 2050. But the dynamics of current emissions and the macroeconomic prospect of their accelerated growth, with the accompanying destruction of the natural environment by the industrializing economies of the Global South, shifts all the reduced forecasts to over extreme options (which is directly reported by the EU-funded reports of the research projects IMPRESSIONS, HELIX and RISES-AM):

• The world is likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold between 2026 and 2042 in a scenario where emissions cannot be cut much, with estimates between 2030 and 2032.

• The 2°C threshold is likely to be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median of 2043.

• Even in a moderate mitigation scenario where emissions remain close to current levels, the 2°C threshold will be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.

The World Meteorological Organization recently calculated that there is already a one in four chance that the world will exceed 1.5°C for at least one year by 2025. Therefore, the non-linear effects of a 2°C warming should be seen as a reality 20-30-yrs event horizon. Moderate climate scenarios, which give a chance for a controlled keeping up with the upcoming changes, are receding before the scientific picture of intermittent cataclysms, with which our anthropogenic habitat is already actively in contact. This was witnessed in 2022 by most of Europe, having met a record drought in 500 years.

Warming involves three basic unfavorable processes: a significant change in the annual thermal regime; permanent crisis of access to fresh water, negative balance of water resources; an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events (territories located near ocean coasts, near areas of seismic activity, in basins originating in the mountains of rivers, etc. will suffer the most). The interaction of these processes and their cumulative effect is very different from region to region of the world, forming the unevenness of nature-economic resources of the 21st century. These new climatic qualities of the territories form the concept of the economic cost of climate change. In this connection, over the global competition of social organization systems and systems of reproduction of scientific and technological progress, competition for control and effective management of geoclimatically stable territories is built on. Climate change will radically disrupt and/or make impossible the production cycle of most complex existing industrialized economic activities: energy, agriculture, heavy industry, mechanical engineering, etc. All these clusters were projected on the nature-economic abundance map of the last century. In most cases, their spatial preservation in the same locations is problematic. The shortage of the key component, water, is either not solved in principle, or its compensation is economically extra-costly.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Climate Change 2014
Paris Agreement (2015) - The purpose of the agreement (as defined in Article 2) is to "intensify implementation" of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, in particular to keep global average temperature rise "well below" 2°C and to "make efforts" to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
IMPRESSIONS Integrated solutions to address high levels of climate change EU funded (Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions). The project was implemented in 2013–2018. The project consortium consisted of 26 partners from 16 European countries and was supported by an expert council of 7 non-European scientists.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-global-warming-edges-closer-to-paris-agreement-1-5c-limit/
https://www.dw.com/en/almost-two-thirds-of-europe-is-affected-by-drought-eu/a-62900931
According to independent estimates, 40% of the world's population will face global water scarcity by 2030 - The United Nations World Water Development Report, 2021
EXAMPLE
"In 2020, 87% of the world's electricity generated by thermal, nuclear and hydroelectric power plants was directly dependent on the availability of water. Meanwhile, 33% of thermal power plants that depend on the availability of fresh water for cooling are located in areas with high levels of water scarcity. This also applies to the 15% of existing nuclear power plants, which is expected to increase to 25% in the next 20 years. 11% of HPP capacities are also located in areas with high levels of water scarcity. And approximately 26% of existing and 23% of planned hydropower dams are in river basins where the risk of water shortages currently ranges from medium to very high." (author's note: And this is only at the very beginning of the warming journey) - WMO "Climate change threatens energy security", October 2022.
The consequences of climate transformation will hit the Pacific coastal and island urban systems, the Middle East and North Africa, Indo-China, South America the most:
  • The population of coastal cities is growing: about four out of every five people affected by sea level rise by the middle of this century will live in East or Southeast Asia. As of today, some 641 of China's 654 largest cities are already suffering from regular flooding, especially sprawling coastal cities.
  • Between 2000 and 2019, more than 475,000 people died as a result of more than 11,000 extreme weather events worldwide, and losses amounted to about US$2.56 trillion (purchasing power parity).
  • Of the ten most affected countries in 2019, six were affected by tropical cyclones. Recent scientific evidence suggests that the number of severe tropical cyclones will increase with every tenth degree increase in global average temperature. Increasing the frequency of their recurrence will make life in the zone of regular natural disasters impossible, causing migration from the coasts into the depths of the continents.



German watch report - Global Climate Risk Index 2021
A prospect that lies ahead for both the southern states of the US East Coast and the cities of Southeast Asia, which are threatened by the rising ocean.
Sea level rise at the end of the century is projected to be faster under all scenarios, including those that are compatible with the achievement of the long-term temperature target set out in the PA! The mean sea level rise will be up to 0.84 m (0.61–1.10 m, likely range; RCP8.5) by 2100 compared to 1986–2005. After 2100, sea levels will continue to rise for centuries… (high confidence)… Antarctica could experience up to 28 cm of water rise (RCP8.5, upper limit of likely range) by the end of the century.

Risks to global food security:

1) Crisis of fisheries sustainability. There is ample evidence of a decline in the overall productivity of agriculture on a global scale over the past half century, which is directly related to the effects of global warming. Globally, however, productivity in the oceans also suffers, and intensive fishing is not the only factor here. Fish populations are being squeezed, which is associated with both ocean acidification and global warming.

The food supply crisis that will develop in areas facing the harsh effects of global warming will be further exacerbated for coastal countries (many of which are large states with large populations: China, Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, etc.) Climate change exacerbates the problem, which been created for over 70 years. After the end of the 40s, the world's fisheries were managed as an inexhaustible economic resource, which led to a massive expansion of industrial fisheries. Among the "fishing countries", the largest ocean operators will face the greatest food security risks for themselves.

China's overseas fishing fleet consists of more than 3,000 vessels, sailing from Africa to the Antarctic to the Pacific. For example, almost half of the fish caught on the high seas ends up in the holds of Chinese and Taiwanese ships.

The global fishing industry has reached the following parameters: 60 percent of the stock fish population is raked out at the maximum limit for future reproduction (the process only gets worse from year to year) and as many as 34 percent are caught in excess of the limit, dooming populations to extinction. Over the past 20 years, this over-exploitation figure has grown by 7 percent. The dynamics are threatening and do not take into account the associated impact on fish ecosystems during further warming.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, a third of commercial fish stocks are harvested at unsustainable levels, and 90 percent are fully exploited.

The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) report reinforces our thesis with a more blunt statement: "Ocean warming may well be the most hidden problem of our generation."

At the same time, European countries are globally among the least vulnerable to the impact of climate change on food security risks associated with fisheries.

2) The crisis of stability in agriculture. There are also implications for other aspects of the food system, due in part to climate-related extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts and floods, which lead to food shocks and are exacerbated in their respective vulnerable regions – reducing food production and maintaining poorer food diversity. These events will, over time, definitively disrupt the agricultural cyclical infrastructure of the affected regions that supported the fragile food system of entire countries. The food availability limit will be reached even before 2°C of warming - a further scenario will only aggravate the situation.

Depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the next 50! years, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to remain outside the climatic conditions that have served humanity well for the past 6,000 years. In the absence of climate mitigation or migration, a significant portion of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures higher than almost anywhere else today.

Despite significant psychological, social and political barriers to migration, changing the geographical distribution of human population and agricultural production is another likely part of humanity's spontaneous or managed adaptive response to climate change.

Against the background of other territories, the European continent, losing the climatic cradle of the Mediterranean region (which at one time played a key role in the formation of Western civilization due to climate), in part of its central, eastern and northern regions has a chance to get the core of the so-called. "climatic safe harbor".
The state world fisheries and aquaculture 2020
Future of the human climate niche (2019. Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler,Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning, Marten Scheffer)
Figure 1. Mean annual temperatures of 17 to 22 °C represent the predicted human temperature niche regime in 2070 under the RCP 8.5 and SSP3 scenarios. In the current climate, such conditions are common in gray areas, but are projected to change to shaded areas (anti-niches) by 2070 (RCP 8.5). The background colors represent current average annual temperatures. (Future of the human climate niche. Chi Xu et al.)
2. THE COMING CLIMATE IN EUROPE: NEW PARAMETERS OF THE LIVING ENVIRONMENT AND THREATS TO THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM
I. Temperature regime. By the period 2040–2069 the average duration of thermal summer in Europe will increase by almost 30 days compared to 1971–2000, and winter will be shortened by 30–60 days. Terms of warm days are stretched, and the onset of autumn is shifting. In the ensemble of prognostic models, there is a high linear correlation between the average annual temperature rise and further shifts in the classical thermal seasons. A long dry summer goes beyond the usual three months, which will create extreme conditions in regions that, for geographical reasons, cannot compensate for the lack of moisture with precipitation during the autumn-winter period. An increase in the frequency of summer heat waves from Africa will only exacerbate this situation, contributing to the loss of crops in already overheated zones and the disruption of technological processes in the industrial sector.

During the autumn and winter months, the temperature change in Northern and Eastern Europe will be higher (up to 3°С) compared to Southern Europe (1–1.5°С). Which, however, gives an advantage to countries that previously had contrasting seasons than to countries in the South, which are already overheated by now. Warming in winter increases from the western coastal regions of Europe to the eastern continental spaces. On our current trajectory towards RCP8.5 (average increase of about 3.6C to 5.4C in Europe by 2100), heat-related deaths in Europe could rise from about 25,000 baseline per year to over than 100,000 by the 2050s - without adaptation. The effects vary widely across Europe: with southern and central Europe experiencing particularly significant increases in heat-related deaths.

[However, much more extreme regimes are expected in the neighbors of the European continent: for example, New Delhi now has an average temperature of 32°C for 6 months a year, and at RCP8.5 by 2050 it will be already 8 months. While the European Mediterranean is moving towards the current summer temperatures of North Africa, then densely populated areas of the same Egypt, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, etc., will soon experience seasons that can suddenly launch a new large migration of peoples.]

II. Water regime. All climate models agree on one thing: the Mediterranean belt of the South of Europe is moving towards extreme permanent drought, and desertification will become a threat for part of the territories. Spain, Portugal, the South of France, almost all of Italy, the Balkans and Greece - the territories of Europe's landmark food production - will lose their ability to reproduce regular both natural and greenhouse crops. Thermal and, as a result, operational shortage of water becomes a permanent verdict. The socio-economic consequences of these processes at first glance appear unsolved.

It is important to bring the topic of water into discussions about climate change along with CO2, as it will increase understanding of our rapidly changing landscape with climate.

Extreme droughts will occur in Europe more often than every other summer. In regions such as the Alps, France, the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula, the number of extreme summer droughts will increase by more than 50%. This raises discussions about the need to implement measures to mitigate the consequences of the climate crisis in Europe: adapting to summer droughts and storing water in winter. Climate forecasts indicate that more frequent and extreme weather events are expected by the end of the 21st century. Existing research suggests that Europe is moving towards a future where the status of every drought will increase from severe to extreme.

Rising temperatures will increase the risks associated with extreme water events. The inhabited Atlantic coasts of seas and rivers (primarily associated with mountain systems) from the trade benefits in the past turns into huge risks of devastating natural disasters in the near future.
Climate Change in Central and Eastern Europe Ivonne Anders, Judith Stagl, Ingeborg Auer, and Dirk Pavlik
Hot Spots and Climate Trends of Meteorological Droughts in Europe–Assessing the Percent of Normal Index in a Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensemble.: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frwa.2021.716621/full
Figure 2. Extreme Existence Risks for Europe's Oceanic and Mountainous Water Systems: 1 in 100-year Coastal and Riverine Flood Damage in the 2080s (thousand euros per grid cell) for two combinations of scenarios: temperature increase at 2-3C with sustainable development (SSP1 x RCP4.5, left) and a steeper climate change trajectory (3.6-5.4C) with intensive development (SSP5 x RCP8.5, right). (It is important to clarify that the old classification of floods "once in 100 years" has recently been clarified: recently, the United States has experienced "centenary floods" year after year. The distance of large weather elements is starting to decrease repeatedly)
III. Food. According to (IPCC6, 2023): due to a combination of heat and drought, significant losses in agricultural production are projected for most Europeans by the second half of the 21st century, which will not be offset by increased precipitation in Northern Europe (high confidence). Maize yield losses will reach 50% in response to 3°C GWR (Global Warming Rate), especially in Southern Europe. Yields of some crops (eg wheat) could rise in northern Europe if warming does not exceed 2°C.
Figure 3. Change in runoff with temperature (Top) and corresponding change in moisture (Bottom) - The general trend is the contrast of favorable conditions between Southwest and Central/Eastern Europe North. The deficit in some will be offset by new surpluses in others. (From High-end climate change in Europe Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation, EU Project.
IMPRESSIONS: In Northern Europe, by contrast, agricultural productivity could increase due to warmer temperatures, longer growing seasons, and possibly CO2 fertilization effects if appropriate adaptations are made. As a result of these changes, agricultural systems are expected to shift to the north: arable farming may increasingly be concentrated in the northeast and intensive livestock production in the northwest.
Figure 4: Food security vulnerability in Europe in the 2080s SSP4 x RCP4.5 (high social inequality and spatial mismatch between food production and demand) and SSP5 x RCP8.5 (spatial mismatch between food production and demand, and also strong climate change as the most likely trajectory of the status quo).
Unlike drought, water scarcity is not a temporary crisis, but rather a structural imbalance between available water and demand that changes with the seasons and the changing nature of economic activity. Industry accounts for more than 80 percent of water withdrawals worldwide. The water crisis, which manifested itself in industrial shipping in Central Europe in 2022, as well as in energy with industry, made it clear that for this space, manageable compensatory mechanisms, such as geoengineering, have reached their limit. Policy makers in Europe are already planning for a more water-scarce future without finding immediate solutions. Due to geophysical and technological limitations, matching becomes increasingly difficult at GWRs of 3°C and above; severe restrictions on water consumption are likely to be reached for the first time in parts of Southern Europe (demonstration model for illustration purposes: the current extreme water crisis in the capital of SOUTH AFRICA).

IV. Impact on production. Drier European summers and winters will become even more frequent, according to a new study by the German meteorological service. The largest part of the water in the same Germany is used for cooling power plants and industrial production processes. There are thresholds that can cause power plants to be forced to reduce their energy production or even shut down completely during hot summers because cooling water from rivers starts to exceed the technical temperature threshold in summer. In addition, extreme events will also begin to add their contribution to European climate vulnerability: it is expected that annual flood losses across Europe could increase fivefold by the 2050s, and seventeen times by the 2080s.

The EU depends on goods produced in regions vulnerable to the impact of water scarcity (including agricultural products from the so-called rain-fed agriculture) - this is a huge threat, the potential of which is only gaining momentum. The current strategic importance of trade partner regions such as Southeast Asia and South America is increasing for Europe. But the non-linear increase in climatic impacts on local economic water resources (as well as the increase in the frequency of occurrence of natural disasters affecting production processes) makes the European economy even more vulnerable in the long term. The potential cascade of domestic production losses due to disasters and water scarcity will be exacerbated by unpredictable supply shortages from regions of the world that are much more exposed to the extreme effects of a destabilized and changing climate.
REFERENCE
(US Office of National Intelligence Report 2012: "Global Water Security. US Intelligence Community Assessment")
"Trade in products with high water content ("Virtual Water"). The World Economic Forum predicts that the future demand for water for many of the rapidly industrializing economies of South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa - which feed an estimated 2.5 billion people - can only be met by increased trade. While water is not a commodity sold directly on the open market, it is vital in the production of food and other goods traded throughout the world. Global commodity prices include the cost of water (virtual water) and other resources used in production. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa have partially eliminated the problem of water scarcity by purchasing food products with a high-water content, the actual water content is equivalent to having another Nile River flowing into the region. Worsening water scarcity and rising food prices will create ever greater challenges for all but the richest countries in these regions that can afford to subsidize food, usually through fossil fuel revenues."
The cumulative effects of climate change are affecting Europe unevenly. A number of its regions are potentially capable of forming a compensatory development area, providing a balance of safe growth with their territory: "Europe from the Norwegian to the Black Seas."
http://www.bmbf.wasserfluesse.de/#15
By the middle of the century in northern Europe, very long summers will form a clear majority; its probability ranges from 60 to 70%, on the coasts of the Arctic Ocean even >80%. (Intl Journal of Climatology - 2020 - Ruosteenoja - Thermal seasons in northern Europe in projected future climate.pdf)
3. FORMATION OF A NATIONAL "CLIMATE HARBOR": NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES.
Ukraine has a strong climate position: according to a recent assessment, it is among the countries with the least propensity for global influence and low vulnerability of multi-sectoral development to the impact of climate change.

In the next few decades, the impact of climate change on Ukraine will be less dramatic than in other parts of the world (records ZOI report, Switzerland, «Climate change Eastern Europe 2012»). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), countries in Eastern Europe are less vulnerable to climate change than island or high mountain states. However, significant changes in temperature and precipitation, with the correction of river flows, create a new map of Ukrainian nature-economic resources.

On the issue of the consequences of climate change in Ukraine, the following significant homemade studies were carried out: "Influx of climate change in Ukraine" (Met Office, WB, 2021); "Ukraine and climate change policy: economic aspect: analytical background" (Razumkov Center, Ukraine, 2016); S. Boychenko, et al. «Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index, the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine» (Journal of Geophysics, No. 3, v. 40, 2018, Ukraine); S. Boychenko, et al. "Features of climate change on Ukraine: scenarios, consequences for nature and agroecosystems" (Proceedings of the National Aviation University. 2016. N 4(69), Ukraine); "Changing the climate: findings and adaptations: analytical insights" (NISS, 2020, Ukraine); Iulii Didovets, et al. "Climate change impact on water availability of main river basins in Ukraine" (Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 32, 2020); "Analysis of the impact of climate change on the water resources of Ukraine" (Center for Environmental Initiatives Ecodia, 2021, Ukraine); Climate change in Eastern Europe (ZOI, 2012, Switzerland). On their basis, it is possible to form a general unambiguous trend.

Consolidated forecast of Ukrainian climate changes.

All the processes listed below (even in the absence of adaptation measures) regarding the global consequences and consequences in the rest of Europe under all scenarios retain Ukraine's status of a country with a moderate economic cost of climate change.

Global warming over the next decades will have significantly polar positive and negative effects depending on the reformatted internal climatic zones:

1) The South of Ukraine and the South-East of Ukraine enter the regime of ultra-low precipitation, long dry summers and short and poor winters. North of the Center, North and West, on the contrary, with a growing summer vegetation period, will receive an increase of 15-20% of precipitation in the autumn-winter period;

2) Projections of air temperature changes by the middle of the 21st century (2031-2050) indicate a single-digit increase in temperature in all months of the year in relation to today's parameters. The maximum increments were obtained for December (2.2 °С ± 0.4 °С). Unlike the previous period, significant warming is also expected in January (1.7 °С ± 0.5 °С). The cold period, in particular the winter months, will become much warmer. According to the extreme scenario, in the near future (–2040) an increase in the average annual air temperature by 1.3–1.4С is expected. In the medium term (2041-2060) by 2.8-3.1С, and in the long term (2060-) by 4.4-4.9С compared to the reference period (1981-2010).

If now one of the main global problems of the world is energy security, then in the context of climate change, water security will come to the fore:

1) In the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, the flow of rivers in the middle of the XXI century during the summer period will decrease by 50%. Hydrologists from the University of Dresden (Pluntke et al., 2010) estimate the decrease in runoff in the Western Bug basin under the influence of climate change for the period up to 2080 by 24.5–28%. Studies by N. S. Loboda and M. A. Kozlov (Loboda and Kozlov, 2020) showed that by 2050, along the RPC4.5 trajectory, changes in water resources will reach minus 50–60% in the south and minus 10% in the north. By the trajectory RPC4.5 - minus 60% in the south to minus 30-40% in the north of Ukraine.

2) For the South of Ukraine, the following negative trend is being formed: from 2041, local surface runoff may stop in dry years in Kherson, Odessa, Mykolaiv, south of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia regions. We are talking about zonal water resources of local importance, the so-called "climate runoff", which is sensitive to climate warming. In the Zaporizhzhia region, the "climate runoff" may decrease by 10 times, in the Dnipro region - 6 times, in Mykolaiv - 3.6 times, and in the Crimea - twice. The water supply of these regions does not directly depend on the water resources of the local runoff, and since the last century has been relying to a greater extent on a man-made system of main canals, water pipelines, reservoirs - a catchment system from large main rivers. However, climate change will make the urban and agricultural infrastructure in this part of Ukraine absolutely dependent on the artificial infrastructure of large rivers, depriving the local moisture resource.

Every year, a significant amount of water (15 km3) is redistributed across the territory of Ukraine with the support of main canals and water pipelines. The volume of water losses during transportation is estimated at 2.0 km3 per year. More than a third of the water supplied to irrigation systems is lost due to the low technical level and deterioration of hydraulic structures.

The main source of water resources in Ukraine is the surface river runoff, the impact of climate on this category of natural waters is most often manifested in the formation of two opposite trends:

- a tendency to decrease in water flow from the territory of Ukraine and, accordingly, to a decrease in local water resources;

- increase in water runoff in certain seasons and months of the year in certain territories, the formation of catastrophic floodgates and floods (mainly in the Western regions today, but with the prospect of manifestation in the North)
Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hot spots: Edward Byers et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 055012
«Development of scientific ambush adaptation of the water state of Ukraine to possible climate change due to the improvement of hydrological indications in the main river basins». Report on the implementation of the NDR (ukrainian), 2011
Water strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2025 (scientific basis)(ukrainian), 2015
Impact of climate change on agriculture. The following changes are expected (but within the framework of transformations that are uneven across agricultural territories: the "classical South" is losing, others are gaining potential - it occurs as part of a potential shift to the North of the boundaries of agricultural crops):

• postponement of winter wheat sowing by 40–50 days later;

• increase in temperature during winter dormancy by 4–8°С;

• reduction of the sum of negative temperatures characterizing wintering conditions by 3–4 times;

• reduction of the wintering period by 1.5–2.0 months;

• Favorable conditions for photosynthetic productivity of agricultural crops and increase in overall crop yield by 1.2–1.4 times;

• the timing of the onset of the ripeness phase will be earlier by 1–2 months.

To avoid the negative effects of climate change, it is necessary to improve the system of land management and use crop breeding methods to prevent land degradation and desertification.

Against the background of the radical problems of the EU industrial sector with potential access to water, the Ukrainian water sector can offer long-term stable conditions for intra-European relocation from the industrial sector. Under the condition the creation of a comprehensive plan of measures to stabilize water resources, address the issue of losses in defined Ukrainian territories. Territories that in medium-term understanding for regional climate change will be identified as the most promising and priority.
NATURE-ECONOMIC STABILIZATION MEASURES: basic conditions for investment leadership and intra-European climate relocation.
The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine must include detailed knowledge of the current and future changes in the national habitat. The previously obsolete and destroyed, war-damaged economy, infrastructure and cities cannot be restored in the old maps and forms - this would be an approach that is not viable for the next generation and dangerous for the current one. The previous design of the country relied on a stable, temperate environmental model. Each Ukrainian region is already in its own scenario for the development of heat and water balance, the conditions for the usual flora (including in agriculture) are radically changing, water resources "grow" beyond the limits of the old management system. Ukraine is territorially in an advantageous position in terms of climate transformation. Competent adaptation planning at the local and macro-regional levels is capable of laying a leading foundation in the post-war restructuring for creating a socio-economic system with a "low the economic cost of climate change", with a profitable offer of an ultra-scarce natural resource in the world in the fields of agriculture, industry and energy. Stable access to water, moderate temperature conditions will be the basic conditions that will form the investment passport of the territory.

Examples of required measures to stabilize Ukraine's water resources:

1) A seasonal management system is needed through engineering solutions to balance new water deficits and surpluses, preventing severe summer and pre-winter severe shortages, and vice versa, managing a dangerous flood volume of water in the spring. In a number of regions, the implementation of this approach to accumulate excess water runoff for further use during periods of severe water shortage (including interregional flow) will partially resolve the seasonal difference in water availability;

2) Adaptation plans should take into account that the largest amount of Ukraine's water resources (58%) is concentrated in the rivers of the Danube basin in the border regions of Ukraine, where the demand for water does not exceed 5% of its total reserves. Therefore, the consumption of the waters of this region (Danube and tributaries) is also possible to meet the needs of consumers in other regions of Ukraine (especially the industrially developed Lower Dnipro). Competent solutions to compensate for the deficit of the South of Ukraine, especially for industrially promising regions, is possible through geoengineering solutions in the system of cross-border cooperation, using the organizational potential of the respective Euroregions;

3) It is important to remove "climate blindness" in current attempts to solve the water problem in deficient areas. Short-term low-adaptive solutions are an unaffordable luxury, and in a long-term national adaptation strategy they are criminal in relation to local vulnerable resources. We are talking about such solutions as the construction of intensive irrigation systems in areas where this construction relies on groundwater reserves and / or canal water diversion from unstable surface sources and whose climate passport assumes drying and desertification in the near future. This provides short-term benefits to irrigated farmers, but may lead to permanent depletion of local water resources. These soils, in the long run, are not very productive for growing food, and the overexploitation of these lands today is the depletion of water resources. resources needed for the life of local communities. Territorial examination of the natural economic potential will provide a tool for identifying Ukrainian regions that are sustainable for a certain industrial profile;

4) Changing attitudes towards water: rational economy, cessation of pollution, use of groundwater, maximum purification and recycling of water, improvement of natural rivers, lakes, floodplains, deltas, coastal zones, swamps and wetlands.

4. POST-WAR UKRAINE: THE FIRST ORGANIZATIONAL STEPS TO CREATE A EUROPEAN "CLIMATE HARBOR»

“
"The window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all is closing fast"
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023
The struggle for survival.

Planetary climate change, with its extreme global consequences, is still only in its infancy, forming a socio-economic mobilization appropriate to the looming threat. Various policies to reduce greenhouse gases have, as a result, only served to stimulate industrial production. The consequences of achieving a global temperature increase of 1.5C and 2C are inevitable - the results of emissions are inertial and their actual volumes will still have to be experienced. The arms race and space flight of the 1960s became the most visible example of the high-quality mobilization of public resources and efforts coordinated primarily by the state that we need to prepare for life in future climate conditions. The next stage of the so-called "mobilization innovations", in contrast to the period of the Cold War, is characterized by a change in the object of efforts and goes beyond the scope of only technology, requiring social innovation as well. Shifting from the search for fundamentally new types of weapons to the invention of new means of protection, another way of public organization, which are exclusively in the civil sphere. The horrors of war will actively take a backseat to the massive challenges posed by rapid climate change and its global implications for our lives.

In the next 20-25 years, our world will experience an intense flow of local and national disasters and "collapses" caused by the impact of climate change on our environment. This will make developments in the field of spatial adaptation and solutions in the field of local geoengineering, systemic national and regional geo-infrastructure a fundamental basis for the survival of entire countries and their associations. A state that wishes to survive in its historical form faces the fundamental task of having time in the next 5 years to form the organizational potential (a system of adequate management knowledge) of its state institutions in such a way as to be able to mobilize the key efforts of the national productive forces to solve the issues of preparing natural and economic (natureconomic) conditions of its systemic preservation (as a complete socio-economic system), and, most importantly, be able to become a new center of development, a center of capital accumulation against the general background of the collapse of living spaces in the world.

Post-war Ukraine is given the last chance in the 21st century to compete for the opportunity to become part of the so-called economic core. Western world pole. The post-Soviet pre-war past, with its initial high starting industrial positions, was voluntarily redeveloped and spent by us in the role of the world periphery with all the consequences that follow from this: a permanent decrease in the rate of profit (primitive nomenclature of goods produced by the national economy); collapse of the amount of aggregate public wealth available for domestic socio-economic investments; reduction of national scientific and technical competences. As a result, the national economy was integrated into the global distribution of labor as a subordinate, not independent, forced to be strongly dependent on global economic cycles. The completed transformation is not final, but classical approaches are not suitable for the implementation of an alternative turn to the transformation into a self-sufficient industrial nation. We don't have one for that the list of classic starting "resources" of development, which in history determined the center of the world economy or highly developed countries codependent with it. However, precisely as a result of the destructive consequences brought to the world by the most developed and largest of such countries - accelerating global warming - the most valuable capital of the 21st century - the natural and economic resource of the territory – located in Ukraine. It is necessary to deal with its competent management today.
The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC6 - 2023
Organizational capital: the ability to effectively combine elements of social production.
REFERENCE

In the 20th century, a fundamental formula was developed that determined the success of the so-called "catch-up modernization" for the country that was connecting to the global world. The formula, the quality of which was implemented, determined the degree of significance arising from it in the regional and global systems of the division of labor - that is, inclusion in the race for the right to be part of the so-called "core", manager of factors of capital movement.

This formula consisted of a unique combination capable of effectively realizing the technical and technological achievements of the investment donor at the current stage. The combination consists of spatial-natural, organizational (including human and cultural) and resource potentials - a combination that, in relative terms, in terms of production factors, should provide an increased rate of profit for the donor investing in this space. The stories of the industrialization of the USSR and Red China became vivid examples of such a transformative "entry". In both cases, external capital connected these economies to a certain technical and technological system controlled by it. Establishing a global system with itself at the head, receiving of a large amount of resources connected to the global market (in parallel, earning in the process of transferring to use an already well-developed technological systems: engineering solutions, machines, factories "in assembly", etc.) and/or obtaining a highly efficient manufacturing site, as in the case of China. Internal national self-development (the same "formula of success") based on acquired skills is already a product of the maturity of local elites and the ability to receive national benefits from the logic of global capital movement. The way China is trying to work on this now.

However, China's ability to become an alternative "core" as a result of its own efforts, as well as the ability of the Western core to maintain its dominant position, will not be determined even by the nearest scientific and technical breakthroughs of any of the parties. The ability to reproduce the stability of socio-economic systems in the extreme fluctuations of a changing climate is the main challenge for leading countries.

If at the moment China has become a giant in the production of medium-tech consumer and industrial goods and components (having gained long-term power in the world economy precisely as an irreplaceable player in industrial supply), then the USSR, the industrial base laid by Western capitalism, squandered it on the military industry, and remained a raw material player already in the role of Russia, without leaving its similar global role of the pre-revolutionary empire.

Currently, the competition for the formation of several so-called cores (poles) with a certain regional attachment, and this is accompanied by intra-polar competition for leadership in the right to determine the parameters of the organization of power in the production structure. This new picture of history, where liquid hegemony replaces the old bipolar or unipolar models, emerges from the features of the advanced technological order that is being formed (joint maintenance of the 5th and 6th). The ability to reproduce these arrangements is a condition for the possibility of competition for global leadership and requires broad international cooperation, with the formation of appropriate alliances. Further development of science and technology becomes (in connection with the number of constituent parts of the scientific and production process) possible only in a system with a corresponding wide division of labor. Candidates for the core thus have essentially closed (inaccessible) techniques and technology, the development of which on their own becomes a task for competitors to do for decades, provided that the competitor stands still and does not develop. This makes it possible to implement the policy of technological imperialism, essentially gaining "platform" power in the markets: only the user connection to the technology makes it possible to remain competitive, while the scaling of the application of technology makes its owner a natural monopolist. A vivid example is microprocessor production technology. Their very architectures, as well as production technology, are globally the business and competence of only a few countries and companies.

For example, the Dutch manufacturer of equipment for the production of chips ASML is the only company that owns the technology of the most sophisticated technical process in microelectronics. At the same time, Taiwan in order of magnitude is smaller player in the system, simply ensuring the high quality of the organization of the production of finished products on Dutch and Japanese machines. And China is already the final industrial consumer of finished products, using them in the mass production of consumer goods. Similar technological power of the "core" manifested itself in the recent history of anti-Russian sanctions: Russia was banned from placing orders for the production of microelectronics in Taiwan, losing at the national level the opportunity to develop the microelectronics sector of the economy as such.

Further movement in the direction of the future scientific and technical revolution will be able to afford only some forms of association, unions that are able to organize this division of labor within themselves, additionally correctly and effectively organizing intra-union resource and production profiling for each of the subjects. That will allow to mobilize the resource necessary for the potential transformation to a new technological order. The policy of national self-sufficiency is impossible under the new conditions (the practice of asserting the opposite will become a historical tragedy of entrenched backwardness for some countries in the future).

The conditions under which the nation-states will receive their place in the union division of labor will determine the time parameters of the stability of these cooperatives. Modernizing and developing forms of interaction, rather than the old extractive models regarding the peripheries, will have the greatest stability.

The competition of global poles will be held for the first time in a new quality. Revolving directly around the conditions offered to "third parties" and the depth of their inclusion in production chains, and the readiness to include in a certain advanced technological structure. The development of multilateral relations that intersect with different "cores" in certain spheres of economy and science will be the main task for a developing country that wants to quickly and safely achieve a high level of modernization. The balanced and agreed presence of the interests of several poles on one national territory can guarantee the removal of this national space from the sphere of the military method of redistribution of development resources.

The challenge to the national government in this case is to use the moment of the acute phase of the struggle of "leadership contenders" competently and as efficiently as possible; determine the useful qualities of the parties and the way of interaction with them, based on the maximum understanding of their beneficial potential for realization.

Effectively implemented initial potential due to access to external technologies will provide long-term development only on the condition of further reinvestment in the self-development of one's own competencies. The entire path requires a national plan for such self-development, first elaborated in space and time.

FOREIGN POLICY FORMAT NECESSARY FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF "NATURAL ECONOMIC POLICY" OF UKRAINE

To implement adaptation plans, Ukraine should focus on two types of situational allies:

1) Geoclimatic neighbors that share both natural systems with Ukraine and spatial economic benefits from their future development, including geoeconomics of global "relocation to the North";

2) Global competitors for the status of a development center. Potential donors of equipment and technologies that have the resource to provide "industrialization for export" in the struggle to include in their zone of resource control "third parties".

In the first case, we are talking about the CEE countries, which already have the format of subregional project relations. This is the so-called "Trimarium " (Three Seas Initiative) : Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia + Ukraine potentially Belarus.

In the second case, the EU and China.

Background on the Three Seas Initiative - A project initiated by Poland and Croatia and the European Union. It included 12 countries that declared their interest in Ukraine. At the current stage, the project exists as an organizational mechanism aimed only at the accelerated construction of regional infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and the promotion of economic development of countries that find themselves in a position of retreat (loss of economic ties) due to the destruction of trade ties with Russia. In Brussels, this format is also seen as a second attempt to level the economic gap between the European East and West. The new vertical North-South infrastructure is designed primarily to ring the maritime system of trade in hydrocarbons (primarily - liquefied gas) as a solution in the field of energy security of Europe "without the Russian Federation". Thus, the EU plans to control the issue of the initiative in creating an architecture of rebuildable trade routes, where the European championship first, wanted to intercept China with it "Belt and Road" project through Europe's southern ports. The initiative put forward by Poland and Croatia is crucial for them, as it can shape the independence of the entire region from Russian energy, which will cement the rapprochement of Eastern European countries with the West. The EU has a futile zealous policy of crowding out Chinese investments in the CEE with the help of the Three Seas, which has already provoked public conflicts in the past. Undoubtedly, the project reflects Poland's ambition: the task of raising its subjectivity as a subregional leader in relations with Western European giants. For the EU, the mechanisms of the Three Seas Initiative are considered as the optimal intermediate option for the integration of Ukraine into the EU with the parallel implementation of all possible so-called programs of "post-war recovery" is precisely in the interests of these countries. Having, of course, made the members of the Three Seas bordering Ukraine strategic recipients of the Ukrainian economic complex and realized post-war raw materials projects on its territory.

Of course, having knowledge of future geoclimatic damage for most of its territories, including in the aspect of food security and understanding the global value of control over export food - the EU is making a big bet on its victory in matters of absolute integration of Ukraine into its sphere of influence.

Intensive military-political support for Ukraine in 2022-23 is a direct consequence of the knowledge in the EU about the natureconomic resource that Ukraine possesses in the perspective of global warming. However, so far, in the public sphere of politics, systemic national and subregional projects for recapitalization of natural economic resources have not been announced and are not being prepared.

Therefore, issues of national security of Ukraine, namely the ability to realize the maximum development potential, require increased subjectivity and proactive state participation in the processes of working out the economic content of integration processes in the CEE - with the aim of creating a complex and large national industrial economy of Ukraine, surpassing the simplified agro-raw materials projects proposed from the outside.
In order to realize its national interests, Ukraine should soon initiate a new ideological content of the Three Seas Initiative:
  • It is necessary to initiate the joint work of the participants of the Initiative around the topic of geoclimatic changes and the common natural economic resource shared among the members in this subregion, the benefits of regional cooperation and connections (for example, in the field of general management of a stable annual water balance) in the short-term and long-term perspectives. In the process of substantiating this cooperation, develop a map of joint eco-systems that require increasing their sustainability potential through the implementation of a number of joint cross-border projects;
  • Contribute to the creation of a bloc of so-called countries of "Common geoclimatic destiny" - as a new regional union on a neo-geoeconomic basis. This will create the need to connect to the joint work of the countries of Northern Europe (Finland, Norway, Sweden). Which represent the sub-Arctic region, which in general (under conditions of global warming) receives new development prospects and which should be oriented towards the North-South vertical transport infrastructure. + Long-term China's interest in access through the infrastructure of the Three Seas to the development spaces of the European "new North" should be proposed as one of the stages of the development of the union. The benefit of such a move is represented by Chinese participation in the infrastructure and production projects of this corridor;
  • Take the initiative to include legitimate representatives of Belarus in the preliminary negotiations and mandatory discussion of its equal participation in the Trimore. Belarus spatially includes elements of water infrastructure that are important for Ukraine, as well as a natural and economic resource of similar value for the agricultural sector and industry;
  • Include a detailed vision of Ukrainian economic sector-specific participation in the Trimarium regional project and the EU in general. With a spatial plan of industrial and infrastructural clusters that can be included in the system of the European division of labor. These proposals should be based on the forecast of climate-induced problems in the stability of the EU economic complex, its security problems in the medium and long-term perspectives. The Ukrainian "General Plan for Post-War Development" should generally propose spatial-temporal economic planning for pan-European "relocation" to geoclimatically safe Ukrainian territories.

IT IS NECESSARY TO BENEFIT FROM THE GLOBAL RIVALRY BETWEEN CHINA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION - BECOME THE MEDIATOR OF THEIR COOPERATION

China definitely has a historical experience in water engineering. And in our time, it breaks records for the level of complexity of water structures that are manufactured. In order to quickly implement all the necessary infrastructural solutions for climate adaptation both within Ukraine and in the territory of the Three Seas countries, it is necessary to build a special relationship with China.

Despite the fact that China is a key economic partner, systemic rival and competitor for the EU at the same time: in April 2023, the EU announced the creation of a strategy for the so-called economic de-risking (reducing dependence on China in critical areas). This indicates both the EU's commitment to the development of domestic substitution of Chinese suppliers (for example, renewable energy components), and the fact that in the near future the EU will actively participate in the search for long-term investment partners capable of providing a reliable supply of a number of trade items. At the same time, in the Chinese Concept of Global Security Initiative (2022) a new basic principle of international relations is declared: "To promote coordination and reliable interaction between major countries and to build relations between major countries characterized by peaceful coexistence, general stability and balanced development." How can Ukraine, through its participation, ensure a balance of interests between the EU's newly declared economic sovereignty and China's non-conflicting admission to part of the Eurasian trade space?

Today, China is stuck on a key challenge facing any long-term consumer of external innovation, which is also rapidly modernizing. For a couple of decades, it found these innovations the most profitable price "realization in metal" on the global market. But today, the Chinese export sector of the economy in terms of production factors (primarily high labor costs) has ceased to be a priority in the region, while the political structure of the government does not allow to actively apply further intensive methods of increasing labor productivity on a national scale, with the exception of certain sectors. On the one hand, this potentially threatens to increase unemployment (and so is very sensitive to any fluctuations in external demand for Chinese export goods), on the other hand, it triggers the reverse movement of foreign and equity capital, which finds benefit in the relocation of production to China's closest neighbors. This movement is now being actively implemented in the direction of ASEAN members, who are luring to their side the final, assembly and registration stages of product production.

The Belt and Road project was only a prelude to the future phase of China's search for a way of its sustainable recovery and a new growth model. The current decline in demand for direct Chinese exports is also accompanied by the persistence of politically motivated containment of domestic consumption. It was replaced by a priority incentive for industrial sectors with high employment: concrete, steel, glass, mechanical engineering, etc. The commodity expansion was followed by a natural fall in the rate of profit, which was exacerbated by China's technological dependence in advanced fields. The West controls and develops the key technologies of the current technological order, which China has been able to master and produce competitive finished products. The strengthening of technological competition between the Western community and China by blocking access to innovation (as, for example, the leaders of the United States and Britain declared in the New Atlantic Charter from 2021) may well have a serious impact on competitiveness Chinese electronics and any computerized goods on the international market - and this is a challenge for the structure of the Chinese economy that is being formed now. Not owning chip production technologies (it will take 10-15 years to master the current level of Dutch ASML machines), not owning their architectures, the competition for countermeasures will only be lost.

The contradictions between developed countries and developing economies recede into the background, giving way to competition between technologies of different levels. China proposed to break the old model of the center-periphery division of labor, on the contrary, offering its industrial potential as a driver for the modernization of peripheral economies, building a new economic multipolarity. The initial driver of this was the Belt and Road integration project. Of course, at first it only connected sources of raw materials to China itself. But in the second wave, some (ASEAN members) participants of the «Belt» began to be included in the production chains of Chinese manufacturers. However, this turn triggered a corresponding competitive pushback from former technology donors (which see China's all-encompassing market power as a threat), beginning to diverge the Chinese economic center from the "Western" system of division of labor and exchange in the field of science and technology.

When the technological level of China's industrial and consumer goods began to catch up in some spheres to the Western one, (and the price advantage with the corresponding rate of profit began to prevail on the Chinese side) then the system, which possesses the scientific and technical key to the Chinese new advantage, necessarily began to transfer it to the "off" position for the period necessary to transfer the Chinese technological system to the status, which will lag far behind over time. This is intended to preserve the Western world's high rate of profit in the areas of high-tech products and services.

Understanding the risks of losing the surplus model of the economy, in the near future China will need to implement a new model of interaction with the world, which will allow to disperse the demand for its own non-hitech industrial products, where a competitive rate of profit is maintained. In fact, China will need to actively modernize its more backward trading partners-importers to compensate for the decline in those sectors hit by the "shutdown" policy of the West.

A community of one shared future "in Chinese way" will require China to engage more deeply and purposefully in the accelerated modernization of developing countries. It is important for Ukraine in its new spatial and economic planning, which takes into account the recapitalization of natural and economic resources, to establish those areas of activity (importantly according to the cluster scheme) that China can consider as a worthwhile long-term investment in its economic development, as well as a political and economic factor of regional security in Europe. To close the point of inconsistency of the world order in the European part of the world.

China needs to offer an entrenched economic and emergent political interest in Ukraine, which could contribute to a qualitatively higher level of cooperation with the EU in the field of microelectronics! It is the EU the leader in this matter, not the US, which blocks access to these technologies.

This approach requires the preparation of a number of complex project solutions in the EU-Ukraine-China triangle with subsequent legislative fixation of them in the status of "national projects", which will provide for the long-term inheritance of Ukrainian policy in this matter. Only such an approach is capable of changing China's position regarding the territorial war between Ukraine and Russia. This will provide a basis for the security and integrity of Ukraine to be permanently entrenched in Chinese "doctrines".

Security for Ukraine:
1) Gaining access to Chinese potential in the field of large-scale rapid construction - in order to quickly implement a number of "growth projects" in a short post-war period;

2) Creation of booster industrial sectors of the economy through reindustrialization of depressed industrial centers;

3) Gaining military-political stability from mutually beneficial economic regional projects in Europe that smooth out the risks of both the EU and China: China's assistance in guaranteeing the constitutional borders of Ukraine, covering joint projects with China;

4) Solving the problem of the post-war socio-economic gap for the military: a mechanism for the socialization of the demobilized part of society will be obtained through involvement in large-scale modernization projects of reindustrialization (including the construction of a new Donbas) and the construction of adaptive infrastructure under the parameters of the future climate.

Among the first joint projects, the following should be implemented:

1) Rare earth materials. Industrialization of the extraction of Ukrainian rare earth resources and their local processing for the energy needs of the European Green Deal. Organization of the construction of a battery cluster - complex production of ready-made car batteries for European car manufacturers. Production should be organized with the main suppliers of Europeans, experienced Chinese companies CATL, BYD, Guoxuan, etc. (see an example of a regional approach to reindustrialization on a new basis in the material /D. Yermolaiev "New post-war Donbas: Ukrainian version of the future"/);

2)Energy. A large-scale system of solar energy "for export" within the EU (large solar energy projects should reasonably be concentrated exclusively in the South of the country, while not occupying other more economically valuable spaces of the country), wind energy in the South and in the Center. Integration of these systems into the European hydrogen program. China has large-scale production of some RES components, especially solar panels - while today's EU and Ukraine itself in the future will create endless demand for new energy;

3) Food. Ensuring long-term supplies of food products with deep processing to China - it is important for Ukraine to become a guaranteed element of food security in the developed markets of Southeast Asia, which in the medium-term perspective will experience devastating extreme events for agriculture (from extremes to extremes of droughts and super rains);

4) Gas hub. A joint gas project that will enable the rerouting of Central Asian gas through Ukraine's modernized infrastructure for the needs of the European "Hydrogen Strategy", including underground hub services; etc.

The close mutually beneficial interweaving of two economic poles, the EU and China, in the economic space of Ukraine will become a strategic security platform for us.

This approach will make the so-called project irrelevant. "Israelization" of Ukraine, which involves spending development resources on the status of a frontier facing the eastern border. A long-term peaceful status and high dynamics of development can be realized only in a similar political-economic configuration of cooperation between the two poles of development.

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We are entering an active period of competitive struggle for the quality of adaptation to climate change. The critical importance of the stability of basic resources: water, energy, food is increasing. The key factor is time. National success will be determined by the ability to radically change socio-political "traditions" and stereotypes. Ukraine in difficult circumstances has a unique national resource on a planetary scale - its land and sky. The options of our situational allies on the road to new construction are strictly determined by objective circumstances. Who exactly will be able to dispose of the economic benefit from the expanse of Ukrainian land depends on who will be the first to engage in natureconomic planning: "WE" or "for us". There are state products and goals (collective goals) to which the market is not adapted. Adaptation to climate change through comprehensive capitalization of the national natureconomic resource, which can lead to the growth of the wealth of the entire nation, is one of the tasks of state policy.
The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper
A vivid example: the Chinese modification of chips from Huawei of the English ARM architecture was produced at Taiwan's TSMC until May 2020. At the height of the "trade wars" there was a ban on cooperation with Huawei. In the fall of 2020, Huawei did get access to TSMC's factories - but it was allowed to produce chips only by a more primitive process. Today, the Chinese equip the best devices with American Qualcomm chips.
http://sg-sofia.com.ua/ukrainevisionofdonbass20-ukr

"CLIMATE" NATIONAL TRANSFORMATION REQUIRES URGENT INTERNAL PURPOSEFUL INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS.

The most important task that the post-war Ukrainian society needs to solve as a precondition for new construction is the organization of the appropriate process of social relegitimization of political institutions.The creation of democratic political coalitions between workers, capital and the state (among the institutional forms representing their interests) that would reflect the real interests of organized forces in such communities. These groups have the opportunity to create a legitimate state, capable of accompanying market processes in such a way as to stabilize the processes of disintegration of the old socio-economic space and launch the process of forming a new one - creative and multiplying. In literal terms, this will be the process of the so-called new social contract. Without the creation of such a political consensus, our society will be doomed to reinvent itself in a renewed, compressed, form of eternal stagnation, with the dominant rentier class "under the state". Economic growth depends on the creation of fair rules of stable interaction, which would exclude the pursuit of rent as a principle scheme for the organization of social production.


1. Principles for domestic policy

The formation of consolidated knowledge in the external environment about the future geoclimatic map of Ukraine will allow, on market grounds, to make the natureconomic representation of Ukrainian national potential a tool for the reproduction of foreign capital, which will try to maintain production balances in the situation of new deficits in the world of global warming.

Realization of private sector interest will always be limited by short-horizon business planning and intra-sectoral competition. Implementation of investment projects (according to their scale) and arrangement of the necessary infrastructure will be limited by the scale of organizational and financial capabilities of a private firm (or even a consortium of players). This can create the following threats to the national development strategy (which must be excluded at the beginning of the path):

1) Weak scalability of the results of investments in geoengineering infrastructure for the operation of negligible private projects. Sustainable and long-term effect from natureconomic infrastructure is possible only in the case of implementation of construction-level projects of interregional, national and cross-border scales (example: water management at the level of the Danube, Western Bug river basins, etc.);

2) The danger from the consequences of mass construction of negligible geoengineering infrastructure for the functioning of the national ecosystem as a whole: creating conditions of instability and unforeseen disasters for natural systems, destroying the results achieved by previous works - a zero-sum game;

3) A private investment initiative on its own never takes into account the socio-economic interests of the national plan. The content of investment projects (type, method of activity etc) and the choice of the appropriate infrastructure will take into account only the short-term margin. Not taking into account the national tasks of increasing sustainability (including the so-called recapitalization of the national natureconomic resources). These national interests also dictate the fixation of the type of activity itself, in connection with the corresponding sustainable development of the territory.

In connection with the above, one of the most ambitious tasks of state policy should be the integration of the plan of necessary complex geoengineering measures (expressed in the updated national General Plan) into all institutions of interaction between the state and capital, including in public-private cooperation projects. This approach has two levels of implementation: 1) local solutions (individual construction tied to investment obligations within the framework of the public sector); 2) large national projects (through a form of public-private partnership, large infrastructure projects are implemented in cooperation with related beneficiaries in the real sector - from specific firms to institutional investors, national foreign governments, their combination).

Each new project, each new construction must implement the necessary infrastructure in the way that best corresponds to the Master Plan. It is worth synchronizing the implementation of all necessary elements of the general nature-economic system, which is being built by various entities, within the framework of the Plan.


2. Organization of the national process of "climatic General Planning"

In order to carry out climatic stabilization of Ukraine and implement plans for the formation of an investment-attractive climatic European "harbor", reliable information about future qualitative and quantitative changes in water resources is necessary. This knowledge can be obtained only with the use of modern climate and hydrological models. They should be based on the collection of detailed big data on all water resources of Ukraine, which are related to the country's strategic resource. This will make it possible to obtain an accurate tool that will allow detailing a set of stabilization measures (in the phased implementation schedule). The implementation of this task will allow to create a "Map of perspective spatial development" with points of priority, from the point of view of the climate, infrastructure investments: a new map of the medium-term strategy in rural areas, a new sustainable industrial zoning for industry and energy.

The purpose of system monitoring and dynamic real-time forecasting is to obtain qualitative conclusions from a large amount of data. Which, with professional processing, will turn into a solution for adapting the infrastructure of the technosphere from point chaotic constructions (canals, reservoirs, etc. within the limits of only one district/region) to a high-quality and economically rational process that is adequate to local climate changes. Which should implement the annual equalization of the consequences of hydroclimatic phenomena (excess precipitation and drought). In the conditions of the intensification of losses from these phenomena, the relevance of managing weather and climate risks at the regional and macro-regional levels becomes prominent.

Weather fluctuations and creeping climatic changes in many countries increasingly clearly affect the planning and operation of all economic sectors (agriculture, energy, engineering, chemistry, mining and metallurgical sector). As economic systems become increasingly dependent on weather fluctuations, it is obvious that systems for obtaining information from weather and climate data and forecasts should be connected to decision support systems, taking into account the master plan for climate adaptation measures as a form of knowledge based on them - reinforce this by recognizing the need for this service in the form of stronger policy measures.

For comprehensive analysis and practical recommendations, creation of territorial and sectoral climate adaptation and restructuring plans (based on the above-mentioned approaches), we consider it necessary to create a scientific-expert network-organization "Ukrainian Center for Climate Adaptation".
The works should include the following successive examinations
  • analysis of climate-meteorological indicators and their dynamics for the studied object, determination of trends and scenarios of further changes in the thermal regime and water resources;
  • determination of objects of influence - screening of the components of the territorial system, for which the influence of climatic processes has (or can) significant importance;
  • assessment of the vulnerability of the infrastructure, natural, object of economic activity, to climate change and the local environment in a temporary prognostic dimension;
  • determination and selection of optimal options for adapting the territory to climate change, accounting for the role and significance of the interaction of adaptation measures on a regional and national scale;
  • creation of sectoral expertise on economic spatial planning, synchronized with the consequences of the implementation of the most optimal adaptation measures.
The work of the specified "center" should serve the productive management of national climate risks - coordinated, systemic the process of making and applying management decisions, in which climate information is used for the transformation of risks and long-term consequences associated with the variability and instability of the climate-natural system, and the realization of opportunities for the creation of sustainable and competitive social, economic and ecological systems of Ukraine in the world.

What happens after a war is won can be more important than the war itself.

It is necessary to conquer the world after the war.

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