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HOW UKRAINE CAN DEFEAT THE "OLD STATE" AND IMPLEMENT THE "UKRAINIAN IDEA" AFTER THE WAR
PAMPHLET
1. "AFTER THE WAR" - A HISTORICAL CURSE OF NON-CHANGE.
From the very beginning, the full-scale Ukrainian-Russian war became, in the mass consciousness, a struggle for the right to a chance for the realization of some Ukrainian idea of a radically different future as a moral right of the masses for the marginal efforts made. In contrast, there is the homogenization proposed by the enemy, the structuring of us according to its likeness, which in its elements mirrors ourselves. From that causing organic resistance. However, the so-called CHANGES on the part of the majority of the people of Ukraine (excluding the corporate-rental establishment) is a time-delayed, but persistent passionate desire/dream that is in contradiction to the entire galaxy of "regimes" of state power long before 2022. The existential switch of the war made the current regime the last to ignore the permanent people's revolutionary process. All the defects of the state opposed to the people are manifested in the predatory and trophy nature of the exploitation of people, capital and territory both before and during the war. Therefore, sporadic motivation for military resistance and self-defense of the Ukrainian people is not the protection of the state, but the protection of the country "Ukraine" with the returned people (nationalized) state sovereignty and new joint actions, which mainly provide an adequate answer to the issue of social justice and national cohesion.
It is this hidden "motivation postponed for the near future" that is the reason for the resistance of the majority to Russian propaganda, ideologically formulated in the phrase "is this what you are fighting for?" (at the same time appealing to the actual unsightly facts of the predatory-parasitic flaw of the system of people represented in our state apparatus). But to the surprise of the enemy, such an appeal does not receive a favorable response and mass action. The authorities in Russia do not understand what they are blind to because of their own fears: there are hidden revolutionary processes in attitudes, postponed in time (in an open search for a theoretical and practical formulation for themselves). Not having a specific, articulated content (coherent narratives in public space), this process is nevertheless concentrated in a shared thought-emotion: "After the war, it should not be the same as before (not permissible)." At the practical-ideological level, this opposition of the state and the people has a clip expression of the opposition of the RE-BUILT UKRAINE VS BUILT NEW UKRAINE approach. The image of a confrontation between official pirates sitting on the galleys funds for the "restoration" of schools, roads, and waterworks, and some new thinking and projecting on a cleared field of possibilities.
This "RE" here acts as a parasitic attempt of the corporato-kleptocracy to return on the backs of the victorious nation ways of reproducing its usual mechanisms of supporting status consumption. Only this time, on the basis of a reduced population and a reduced industrial and raw material base for filling the holds. Preserving the rate of profit of the post-war corporatocracy will require a compensatory increase in the exploitation of people and natural territory "to the last rustle buzzing over the cherry trees" (expediting the destruction of our historical "gift of the gods" — the natural economic resource of Ukrainian territories).
If it continues "without changes", the rent-seeking nature of economic power with a centralized corporatized state will directly determine the specific political economy and structural structure of Ukraine's post-war economy. Positive Modeling and Analysis of the Prospective Organization of the New Cluster Structure of the Economy by Economist Oleksiy Kushch "From raw materials to clusters. How Ukraine's Economy Should Change."- ,unfortunately, has no chance of implementation under the old system of government. "Uranium, industrial and energy; titanium industrial and machine-building; lithium-graphite, industrial, electrical and electronic; iron ore, industrial and machine-building; oil and gas-coal, energy and chemical clusters". All of these "clusters" can be implemented, especially the extraction of green energy raw materials only at the level of semi-finished processing with low added value and high environmental costs.
The Ukrainian official "deep state", feded by the previously pre-war trophy of the national oligarhs capitals, in the war and post-war periods, itself took a forward place in the system of organization of the Ukrainian economy, showing purely the abilities and talents of the so-called pirate capitalism. And in terms of organization, it has the abilities and skills only within the limits of the previously demanded ones - the extraction of rent from the primary raw materials sector and small-medium enterprises and crime.
Any "cluster" economy requires an internally legitimized state system capable of providing a long-term joint planning movement towards cooperation with a large external investor and complementary domestic capital (including human capital). In the absence of such state skills, the latter are usually limited to "dirty" raw material projects in every sense (see French key uranium ore mining projects in Namibia and Niger). With this simplification, the result is always a local school, which is built of materials singing from a dosimeter (not! figuratively speaking).
It is this hidden "motivation postponed for the near future" that is the reason for the resistance of the majority to Russian propaganda, ideologically formulated in the phrase "is this what you are fighting for?" (at the same time appealing to the actual unsightly facts of the predatory-parasitic flaw of the system of people represented in our state apparatus). But to the surprise of the enemy, such an appeal does not receive a favorable response and mass action. The authorities in Russia do not understand what they are blind to because of their own fears: there are hidden revolutionary processes in attitudes, postponed in time (in an open search for a theoretical and practical formulation for themselves). Not having a specific, articulated content (coherent narratives in public space), this process is nevertheless concentrated in a shared thought-emotion: "After the war, it should not be the same as before (not permissible)." At the practical-ideological level, this opposition of the state and the people has a clip expression of the opposition of the RE-BUILT UKRAINE VS BUILT NEW UKRAINE approach. The image of a confrontation between official pirates sitting on the galleys funds for the "restoration" of schools, roads, and waterworks, and some new thinking and projecting on a cleared field of possibilities.
This "RE" here acts as a parasitic attempt of the corporato-kleptocracy to return on the backs of the victorious nation ways of reproducing its usual mechanisms of supporting status consumption. Only this time, on the basis of a reduced population and a reduced industrial and raw material base for filling the holds. Preserving the rate of profit of the post-war corporatocracy will require a compensatory increase in the exploitation of people and natural territory "to the last rustle buzzing over the cherry trees" (expediting the destruction of our historical "gift of the gods" — the natural economic resource of Ukrainian territories).
If it continues "without changes", the rent-seeking nature of economic power with a centralized corporatized state will directly determine the specific political economy and structural structure of Ukraine's post-war economy. Positive Modeling and Analysis of the Prospective Organization of the New Cluster Structure of the Economy by Economist Oleksiy Kushch "From raw materials to clusters. How Ukraine's Economy Should Change."- ,unfortunately, has no chance of implementation under the old system of government. "Uranium, industrial and energy; titanium industrial and machine-building; lithium-graphite, industrial, electrical and electronic; iron ore, industrial and machine-building; oil and gas-coal, energy and chemical clusters". All of these "clusters" can be implemented, especially the extraction of green energy raw materials only at the level of semi-finished processing with low added value and high environmental costs.
The Ukrainian official "deep state", feded by the previously pre-war trophy of the national oligarhs capitals, in the war and post-war periods, itself took a forward place in the system of organization of the Ukrainian economy, showing purely the abilities and talents of the so-called pirate capitalism. And in terms of organization, it has the abilities and skills only within the limits of the previously demanded ones - the extraction of rent from the primary raw materials sector and small-medium enterprises and crime.
Any "cluster" economy requires an internally legitimized state system capable of providing a long-term joint planning movement towards cooperation with a large external investor and complementary domestic capital (including human capital). In the absence of such state skills, the latter are usually limited to "dirty" raw material projects in every sense (see French key uranium ore mining projects in Namibia and Niger). With this simplification, the result is always a local school, which is built of materials singing from a dosimeter (not! figuratively speaking).
стаття від 23 липня, 2024 ZN:UA
2. THE LANGUAGE OF IDEOLOGICAL INSTITUTIONS AND A NARROW WINDOW FOR RADICAL REORGANIZATION
The nature and content of the changes must be determined by the images of the economic structure which the whole Ukrainian people will be ready and able to share in joint action. It is also important for us to take into account the closure of additional problems caused by the war itself, in order to actualize social dreams. It is necessary to solve the problem of lost internal political-economic, and therefore social, coherence. When talking about the post-war modernization construction of the country, we must set such high goals that fully correspond to our physical potential of the territory, won at an unspeakably high price. Finally changing the simplified answer to the question "What are we always fighting for?" for a long time. It's time to fill the void of the balloon called "Ukrainian Idea". And extrapolate it to the maximum potential of our land, the political and social model and institutions that would correspond to the most effective way of its implementation.
"TO CREATE ONE'S OWN DESTINY IN A FREE WAY ON THE LAND GIVEN BY ONE'S LINEAGE" is an egalitarian idea "in Ukrainian", defined from the negative. Something that we have always lacked in our own history. We have a historic chance to justify the protracted turbulence of our own history through the socialization of our Golden Age, closing the demand for justice. "Emotional Tail Waving Rational Dog" – our great collective effort to arrange a brighter future for our children has a scientific stimulus from climate science, yet requires the elimination of the usual ethos of managing our lives. The perverse incentives of the past – the lust for short profits and the lack of wisdom about societal consequences – must go away.
Internal ideological pillars and their content:
1) Self-sufficiency. Ability to formulate and implement long-term (20+) programs of systemic spatial development of the state;
2) Development security. The critical multifaceted dependence of external parties on our abilities and the goods we create;
3) Sustainability of development. Our natural and geoclimatic resources should increase our national potential not at the expense of costs passed on to future generations. We need to capitalize the environment for our grandchildren, not lend them through the consumption and denigration of today's natural capital;
4) Provision of development with own resources. Ukraine is the geoclimatic haven of Europe and is a key area for future European climate adaptation. In the next few decades, the impact of climate change on Ukraine will be less dramatic than in many other parts of the world. Ukraine has a strong climate position: according to a recent assessment, it is among the countries with the lowest exposure to global impact and low vulnerability of multisectoral development to the impacts of climate change. Large river basins have sufficient resources to artificial transfer of water resources to the needs of inland areas with scarcity. The topic of systemic "deficit" in Ukraine is an external technical argument and is based on the calculation of the "average temperature in the ward" (this is not without a political motive of concealing interests). However, the man-made infrastructural image of the national resource is plentiful, and the sources of the north and west will only grow. Once a historical burden in the form of the country's location at the center of the meeting of the West and the East, it now provides equidistant protection against existing and potential destructive extreme "marine" storm events, major river floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, etc. In the face of exponentially increasing natural disasters around the world, costly to the economy and population, Ukraine is literally a geoclimatic Safe Haven;
Rapid climate change, which will accelerate in the next 25 years, is driven like a wedge into the usual cycles of capitalism. The classic compensation for the fall in the rate of profit (before the emergence of a new technical innovation and monopolies on a new technological paradigm) was due to optimization with the transfer of enterprises to territories with lower wages and/or low environmental standards. Climate change is rapidly changing the map of globalized capitals and rewriting forecasts for their future "quiet" and "turbulent" harbors (see McKinsey's 2020 report). Their geography is uneven, and in most cases, a physical natural blow will be inflicted on most of the newly industrialized shores of the so-called Global South. In most cases, the capitals of the North will have to replan themselves and overpay to maintain the internal physical stability and productivity of economies, moving from accumulation to saving. The most stable territories can and should race against time and redirect this "adaptive capital" to their shores. At the heart of the post-war change in Ukraine, it is necessary to use this national capital.
"TO CREATE ONE'S OWN DESTINY IN A FREE WAY ON THE LAND GIVEN BY ONE'S LINEAGE" is an egalitarian idea "in Ukrainian", defined from the negative. Something that we have always lacked in our own history. We have a historic chance to justify the protracted turbulence of our own history through the socialization of our Golden Age, closing the demand for justice. "Emotional Tail Waving Rational Dog" – our great collective effort to arrange a brighter future for our children has a scientific stimulus from climate science, yet requires the elimination of the usual ethos of managing our lives. The perverse incentives of the past – the lust for short profits and the lack of wisdom about societal consequences – must go away.
Internal ideological pillars and their content:
1) Self-sufficiency. Ability to formulate and implement long-term (20+) programs of systemic spatial development of the state;
2) Development security. The critical multifaceted dependence of external parties on our abilities and the goods we create;
3) Sustainability of development. Our natural and geoclimatic resources should increase our national potential not at the expense of costs passed on to future generations. We need to capitalize the environment for our grandchildren, not lend them through the consumption and denigration of today's natural capital;
4) Provision of development with own resources. Ukraine is the geoclimatic haven of Europe and is a key area for future European climate adaptation. In the next few decades, the impact of climate change on Ukraine will be less dramatic than in many other parts of the world. Ukraine has a strong climate position: according to a recent assessment, it is among the countries with the lowest exposure to global impact and low vulnerability of multisectoral development to the impacts of climate change. Large river basins have sufficient resources to artificial transfer of water resources to the needs of inland areas with scarcity. The topic of systemic "deficit" in Ukraine is an external technical argument and is based on the calculation of the "average temperature in the ward" (this is not without a political motive of concealing interests). However, the man-made infrastructural image of the national resource is plentiful, and the sources of the north and west will only grow. Once a historical burden in the form of the country's location at the center of the meeting of the West and the East, it now provides equidistant protection against existing and potential destructive extreme "marine" storm events, major river floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, etc. In the face of exponentially increasing natural disasters around the world, costly to the economy and population, Ukraine is literally a geoclimatic Safe Haven;
Rapid climate change, which will accelerate in the next 25 years, is driven like a wedge into the usual cycles of capitalism. The classic compensation for the fall in the rate of profit (before the emergence of a new technical innovation and monopolies on a new technological paradigm) was due to optimization with the transfer of enterprises to territories with lower wages and/or low environmental standards. Climate change is rapidly changing the map of globalized capitals and rewriting forecasts for their future "quiet" and "turbulent" harbors (see McKinsey's 2020 report). Their geography is uneven, and in most cases, a physical natural blow will be inflicted on most of the newly industrialized shores of the so-called Global South. In most cases, the capitals of the North will have to replan themselves and overpay to maintain the internal physical stability and productivity of economies, moving from accumulation to saving. The most stable territories can and should race against time and redirect this "adaptive capital" to their shores. At the heart of the post-war change in Ukraine, it is necessary to use this national capital.
3. RENEWED DECENTRALIZATION SHOULD PUT AN END TO CENTRALIZED PIRACY.
Res-publicanization (as a «common cause») of the post-war construction of Ukraine on the priciples of the so-called geoclimatic harbor of the world on a practical level will allow us to regain our own state, regaining each other - this is the answer to the question "why do we need a community and a common life in one country". The future, its physical security, should become our common rēs pūblica. Power over fate is restored in a collective responsible, goal-oriented cause, where the results of efforts are fairly distributed among the participants and inseparably become a resource for future generations.
The basis of our national future recapitalization lies in the natural economic resource of the territories. Which, in fairness, has the right of priority benefits from local communities and whose future potential is in their hands. The development of infrastructure of natural services and adaptation (water infrastructure, forests, etc.) is, accordingly, a mandatory part of the participatory democratization of the community economy and the political subjectivity of local authorities. The "parachute" of local politics dies out at the moment when we restart the principle of power from below. The pirate centralized system holds back this process only because of the pause in the relevant mentalities and socio-political actions set by the war. The idea of the uniqueness of our land at this historical planetary moment and the possibility of collective long-term mutually beneficial benefits, which with joint actions we can create here for a long time, makes it possible to turn the centrifugal internal socio-political process (landslide disorganization) into a restart of the Ukrainian project on the basis of the NEW ECO-INDUSTRIAL NATION IN A GEOCLIMATICALLY STABLE COUNTRY.
Under such conditions, the center of the assembly of power is communities and their regional representative bodies as the main subjects and beneficiaries of the implementation of projects for the recapitalization of natural and economic resources of Ukraine, the relocation of European businesses from dry and overheated territories.
The Center retains an important, but limited function - control over the observance of interregional equity of development (there are no small and insignificant regions at the expense of which others could develop) and the compliance of all "geoclimatic" projects with system planning + collective security issues in a wide range.
The basis of our national future recapitalization lies in the natural economic resource of the territories. Which, in fairness, has the right of priority benefits from local communities and whose future potential is in their hands. The development of infrastructure of natural services and adaptation (water infrastructure, forests, etc.) is, accordingly, a mandatory part of the participatory democratization of the community economy and the political subjectivity of local authorities. The "parachute" of local politics dies out at the moment when we restart the principle of power from below. The pirate centralized system holds back this process only because of the pause in the relevant mentalities and socio-political actions set by the war. The idea of the uniqueness of our land at this historical planetary moment and the possibility of collective long-term mutually beneficial benefits, which with joint actions we can create here for a long time, makes it possible to turn the centrifugal internal socio-political process (landslide disorganization) into a restart of the Ukrainian project on the basis of the NEW ECO-INDUSTRIAL NATION IN A GEOCLIMATICALLY STABLE COUNTRY.
Under such conditions, the center of the assembly of power is communities and their regional representative bodies as the main subjects and beneficiaries of the implementation of projects for the recapitalization of natural and economic resources of Ukraine, the relocation of European businesses from dry and overheated territories.
The Center retains an important, but limited function - control over the observance of interregional equity of development (there are no small and insignificant regions at the expense of which others could develop) and the compliance of all "geoclimatic" projects with system planning + collective security issues in a wide range.
APPENDIX. POLITICAL ECONOMY SCHEME OF DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRY'S WATER RESOURCE.
Scheme of implementation of climate adaptation measures on the example of the water sector: distribution of powers and share of participation
(Let's assume the need, and therefore the availability of all the following documents and institutions, but we proceed from the fact that water is already a globally convertible resource)
Stage I. Creation of Natural-Economic Sectoral Zoning: "Map of Prospective Spatial Development" of Natural-Economic Resources and "Adaptation Water general-Plan" is created for the government, and gives it a tool that enables the creation of geoclimatically rational (taking into account the spatio-temporal impact of climate change), sectoral zoning of economic activities and synchronized with this mandatory construction of water engineering solutions with a fixed spatial register - as a long-term state policy. This becomes a tool for preserving and increasing the investment power of the country's territory.
Stage II. Effective implementation of the "Master Plan for Post-War Development", in its part of the construction of adaptive climate infrastructure, according to the conditions. The "Adaptation Water generalPlan" envisages the creation of the next new institutionalized scheme of interaction between business and different levels of government. It includes: balance of powers; ownership of a share in the capital of infrastructure facilities; profits, etc.
CENTRAL SYSTEM OF POWER.
1) Controls at the national level the implementation of the content of the conditions and parameters of the "Adaptation Water General Plan": all investment projects, all sectors of the economy, must directly correlate with its content. The tasks of the central government include ensuring the fairness of the development of natural economic resources and access to it, smoothing out the inequality of regions in access to resources, arbitration, protection of the integrity and efficiency of the national water system.
2) Conducts economic diplomacy with sovereign governments (representing the interest of national companies). Interstate investment agreements should provide for long-term investment projects with the binding of projects to equity investment obligations (in shareholder form) in regional water infrastructure facilities, as part of sub- and regional administrations - with obtaining by the investor guarantees of proportional access (quota for a share in the capital) to the seasonal volume of water resources. And/or previous (before capital investments in its own main project) participation in the construction/recapitalization of national and regional water infrastructure facilities with contracted access to water "delayed in time" for climate-induced active industrial relocation projects, etc. The investor must obtain a guarantee of the parameters of current and future natural-economic resources (with a clear quota scheme for their inter-annual fluctuations: "dry"/"flood" years)
State interest: in accordance with the national plan of the prospective water system of Ukraine, to implement a controlled process of public-private infrastructure investment "by the method of building puzzles". Income from profits in water infrastructure – 20%. Share in the capital – 20%. All profits are directed to the general financing of large transit national (transregional) water projects.
REGION-DISTRICT. Regional and district authorities perform only a supervisory downward level of control of investment projects on the ground in terms of their compliance with the parameters and conditions of the "Adaptation Water General Plan".
On the basis of the region, a consolidated owner-manager of the "Region Water" is created - as a commercial, state-municipal-private joint-stock company.
LOCAL AUTHORITIES. It owns a capital share in each specific water project, and therefore a corresponding share in the joint-stock "Region Water" in the amount of 31%, in proportion to the involvement of local communities in the relevant water projects. Receives most of the income from fees (55% for social development) from economic activities that consume purely local water resources (within the boundaries of ATCs(UTCs), agglomerations): local effluent collected in reservoirs, underground water sources, etc.
The center of redistribution remains the regional structure - "Regional Water", where proportional property and income are fixed. The remainder of the community's own water quota can be resold by the community to local businesses. This will be an incentive for the introduction of savings technologies and the elimination of irrational losses by local utilities.
As the initial source of financing for the share of capital infrastructure investments from the side of the communities, it is proposed to consider the so-called external post-war foreign aid "for recovery". The maximum convergence of interests is possible in case of coincidence of the donor country and the investment firm of the donor's country of origin (in this way, they can implement a comprehensive solution for water and resource provision of their foreign investments in our territory).
Yermolaiev Dmytro, Kyiv 2024
(Let's assume the need, and therefore the availability of all the following documents and institutions, but we proceed from the fact that water is already a globally convertible resource)
Stage I. Creation of Natural-Economic Sectoral Zoning: "Map of Prospective Spatial Development" of Natural-Economic Resources and "Adaptation Water general-Plan" is created for the government, and gives it a tool that enables the creation of geoclimatically rational (taking into account the spatio-temporal impact of climate change), sectoral zoning of economic activities and synchronized with this mandatory construction of water engineering solutions with a fixed spatial register - as a long-term state policy. This becomes a tool for preserving and increasing the investment power of the country's territory.
Stage II. Effective implementation of the "Master Plan for Post-War Development", in its part of the construction of adaptive climate infrastructure, according to the conditions. The "Adaptation Water generalPlan" envisages the creation of the next new institutionalized scheme of interaction between business and different levels of government. It includes: balance of powers; ownership of a share in the capital of infrastructure facilities; profits, etc.
CENTRAL SYSTEM OF POWER.
1) Controls at the national level the implementation of the content of the conditions and parameters of the "Adaptation Water General Plan": all investment projects, all sectors of the economy, must directly correlate with its content. The tasks of the central government include ensuring the fairness of the development of natural economic resources and access to it, smoothing out the inequality of regions in access to resources, arbitration, protection of the integrity and efficiency of the national water system.
2) Conducts economic diplomacy with sovereign governments (representing the interest of national companies). Interstate investment agreements should provide for long-term investment projects with the binding of projects to equity investment obligations (in shareholder form) in regional water infrastructure facilities, as part of sub- and regional administrations - with obtaining by the investor guarantees of proportional access (quota for a share in the capital) to the seasonal volume of water resources. And/or previous (before capital investments in its own main project) participation in the construction/recapitalization of national and regional water infrastructure facilities with contracted access to water "delayed in time" for climate-induced active industrial relocation projects, etc. The investor must obtain a guarantee of the parameters of current and future natural-economic resources (with a clear quota scheme for their inter-annual fluctuations: "dry"/"flood" years)
State interest: in accordance with the national plan of the prospective water system of Ukraine, to implement a controlled process of public-private infrastructure investment "by the method of building puzzles". Income from profits in water infrastructure – 20%. Share in the capital – 20%. All profits are directed to the general financing of large transit national (transregional) water projects.
REGION-DISTRICT. Regional and district authorities perform only a supervisory downward level of control of investment projects on the ground in terms of their compliance with the parameters and conditions of the "Adaptation Water General Plan".
On the basis of the region, a consolidated owner-manager of the "Region Water" is created - as a commercial, state-municipal-private joint-stock company.
LOCAL AUTHORITIES. It owns a capital share in each specific water project, and therefore a corresponding share in the joint-stock "Region Water" in the amount of 31%, in proportion to the involvement of local communities in the relevant water projects. Receives most of the income from fees (55% for social development) from economic activities that consume purely local water resources (within the boundaries of ATCs(UTCs), agglomerations): local effluent collected in reservoirs, underground water sources, etc.
The center of redistribution remains the regional structure - "Regional Water", where proportional property and income are fixed. The remainder of the community's own water quota can be resold by the community to local businesses. This will be an incentive for the introduction of savings technologies and the elimination of irrational losses by local utilities.
As the initial source of financing for the share of capital infrastructure investments from the side of the communities, it is proposed to consider the so-called external post-war foreign aid "for recovery". The maximum convergence of interests is possible in case of coincidence of the donor country and the investment firm of the donor's country of origin (in this way, they can implement a comprehensive solution for water and resource provision of their foreign investments in our territory).
Yermolaiev Dmytro, Kyiv 2024
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